The biggest question for magnet buyers this November is a date. China’s one-year pause on its expanded rare earth export controls was due to end on November 10, but the US and China have since said the wider trade truce runs to January 10, 2027, and Beijing has not yet published a legal notice that matches.
That gap, plus soft Chinese shipments to the US, a Pentagon sourcing deadline on January 1, and softening Pr-Nd prices, makes year-end a good time to review how your magnet supply is planned. Here is where things stand as of November 3, 2026.
The short version
- Export controls: The April 2025 licensing on seven medium and heavy rare earths was never suspended and still applies. Only the October 2025 expansion is paused.
- Supply: Chinese magnet shipments to the US are still running below pre-trade-war levels.
- Pricing: Pr-Nd has held firm near highs but is under pressure, while dysprosium and terbium have softened.
- Defense: A US procurement rule starting January 1, 2027 targets magnets with any Chinese supply-chain stage.
- Western supply: Capacity is being built fast, but it is not yet large enough to replace Chinese volume.
China’s export controls: November 10 or January 10?
The legal text still says November 10, while the diplomatic statements say January 10, so plan around both until Beijing publishes a numbered notice.
China’s Announcement 70 paused six of its October 2025 rare earth announcements until November 10, 2026. That package added five more rare earths and a rule reaching foreign-made products that contain even small amounts of Chinese-origin rare earth material, measured at 0.1% of the item’s value.
After the September 24 Trump–Xi summit, US Treasury Secretary Bessent said the truce would extend into January 2027. On September 28, a Chinese Commerce Ministry (MOFCOM) official said the two sides agreed to extend the wider arrangement to January 10, 2027. That statement did not name rare earths, and the latest reporting we found (mid-October) shows no numbered MOFCOM notice changing the November 10 date. Watch for one before the 10th.
What was never paused. China’s April 2025 licensing on seven medium and heavy rare earths (samarium, gadolinium, terbium, dysprosium, lutetium, scandium and yttrium) was not part of the suspension. It reaches samarium-cobalt magnet materials and NdFeB magnet materials containing terbium or dysprosium, so those items need Chinese export licences whichever date holds.
Supply reality: the truce has not restored normal flows
Chinese magnet shipments to the US are still weak a year after the Busan truce. Customs data reported by the Financial Times put August 2026 rare earth magnet exports to the US at 512 tonnes, down 20% from July and 13% from August 2025. Shipments to all destinations were 5,010 tonnes in August, down 6% on the month and 18% on the year, per Shanghai Metals Market. Capital Economics said in September that shipments to the US were falling at their fastest pace since the pandemic.
Three factors are behind the slow flow:
- Slow licensing. The rules call for a decision within 45 working days, but approvals have often taken months.
- General licences are narrow. The first one-year general licences, issued in late 2025, went to three large magnet makers and are tied to named buyers. If they run the full year, they lapse around December 2026.
- The entity list. In June 2026, China added ten US entities to its export-control list, including MP Materials and USA Rare Earth. A listed party is a hard block, not a licensing delay.
Pricing: Pr-Nd firm but stalling, heavy rare earths softer
Pr-Nd, the largest rare earth component in an NdFeB magnet, was holding near highs in mid-October, but buying was thin and more recent daily reports show the Pr-Nd chain pulling back. Shanghai Metals Market’s October 15 weekly review described dysprosium and terbium as weakening while holmium and erbium rose. The review called magnet demand mediocre, with motor plants buying only what they need.
| Item (China domestic, Oct 15, 2026) | Quote | Unit |
|---|---|---|
| Pr-Nd oxide | 743,000–745,000 | yuan/tonne |
| Pr-Nd alloy | 895,000–903,000 | yuan/tonne |
| Dysprosium oxide | 1.40–1.42 million | yuan/tonne |
| Terbium oxide | 6.36–6.40 million | yuan/tonne |
| NdFeB blank, N38 (Ce) | 213–223 | yuan/kg |
| NdFeB blank, 40H | 263–273 | yuan/kg |
| NdFeB blank, 45SH (Ce) | 313–333 | yuan/kg |
These are Chinese domestic benchmarks for raw material and blanks, not finished-magnet prices delivered to the US. Licensing, tariffs, coatings, machining and certification all sit on top. Treat them as a direction, not a quote. As of mid-October, SMM described overseas prices as stable, and finished-magnet pricing for 2027 will depend heavily on how the export-control and truce questions resolve.
Defense: the January 1, 2027 sourcing deadline
For defense and aerospace programs, the date to plan around is January 1, 2027. Under DFARS 252.225-7052, as reported by Tech Times, contractors cannot deliver systems containing samarium-cobalt or NdFeB magnets if any stage of the supply chain, from mining through magnet fabrication, took place in China, Russia, Iran or North Korea.
Defense primes have reportedly lobbied for a second delay, because Western magnet capacity is not yet at the volumes they need. A waiver is a political decision, not a plan. The safer course is to assume the deadline holds and confirm magnet provenance, stage by stage, on every affected program. Confirm the exact rule text and its application to your contracts with your contracts or compliance team.
Western supply is growing, but it is a 2028 story
Western capacity is being built quickly, though not fast enough to replace Chinese volume in the near term. One tally put roughly $4.3 billion of US federal and private capital into the rare earth and magnet supply chain between June 3 and July 8, 2026. The G7 agreed in June to cut reliance on any single supplier of rare earths and magnets to below 60% by 2030.
On the ground, MP Materials began making NdFeB magnets at its Texas plant in December 2025 and is targeting commercial sales in the second half of 2026. Its larger second plant is not expected to start commissioning until 2028. USA Rare Earth commissioned the first phase of its Oklahoma magnet plant in March 2026, with a 600-tonne annual target. For comparison, the Chinese producer JL MAG has set a target of 60,000 tonnes of annual capacity by 2027.
The constraint is as much process know-how as capital, particularly for the high-coercivity grades that depend on heavy rare earths. For buyers, that means non-China options are real but scarce, and qualification takes time, so start early.
What buyers should do before year-end
Use the next few weeks to lock in your 2027 magnet plan, since these steps hold whichever date Beijing confirms.
- Ask your supplier, in writing, which date they are planning to (November 10 or January 10) and whether any general licence they hold names your company and when it expires.
- Forecast through Q1 2027 and book early. Place blanket orders or confirm lead times now for any grade containing dysprosium or terbium, since those need export licences from China.
- Review your grade. If your operating temperature allows, ask whether a lower-dysprosium grade meets spec. A grade label does not settle the licensing question, so confirm the actual composition.
- Audit provenance on defense and aerospace programs ahead of January 1, 2027, stage by stage from raw material to finished magnet.
- Tighten documentation. Keep material certifications, lot traceability and end-use records current so audits and licence applications move faster.
- Budget for price swings. Pr-Nd sits near highs while heavy rare earths are softer, and the direction can change quickly if controls tighten.
Radial Magnets works with automotive/EV, medical device, defense and aerospace, and industrial automation customers on custom neodymium magnets, including true radial magnetization. If you want to talk through your 2027 requirements, grades, lead times or documentation, contact our team.
Sources
The first three pages were read in full; the rest were taken from search results.
- Mainrich International: Trump–Xi Summit and Rare Earth Magnet Supply (updated Oct 11, 2026)
- Shanghai Metals Market: Rare Earth Weekly Review, Oct 15, 2026
- Tech Times: China’s November 10 Deadline and the US Gap (Oct 2, 2026)
- Carra Globe: China Rare Earth Export Controls 2026
- Startup Fortune: China’s rare earth truce
- Mining.com: China issues first batch of streamlined rare earth licences
- Miningmx: China rare earth exports to US fall ahead of summit (Sept 22, 2026)
- Model Diplomat: US Push to Break China’s Magnet Monopoly
- The Humanoid Group: China’s Rare-Earth Export Control Pause Nears Expiry (G7 target)
